About the future of AMD

Understand, what a stir AMD make the processor market next year

Amid the abundance of news about smartphones and all sorts of gadgets are often overlooked for more “hardcore” information about old iron that won’t understand everything.

In General, the following material from such discharge. It concerns AMD Ryzen next generation, which should be out in 2019. Most likely, they will treat the line Ryzen 3000. Only if in the transition from Ryzen Ryzen 1000 to 2000, we received only a small increase in frequency, then the next year everything will be much more fun.

First, the new CPU will be 7 nanometers. Yes, as long as Intel still can not deal with 10-nanometer process technology, AMD will pass on the norms of 7 nm. However, in fairness, we should not think that 7 nm is much better and more modern 10 nm. In fact, it is about the same, just now the concept of workflow is quite vague and partly due to the marketing. For example, rules 16, 14 and 12 nm are almost the same.

In General, whatever it was, and we get the transition from 12 nm to 7 nm, which is quite a noticeable jump. This will allow AMD to increase frequencies and reduce power consumption. To release a new CPU, interestingly, will be as GlobalFoundries (a permanent partner of AMD, have been obtained through the division of AMD), and TSMC. Seminomatous the fabrication process of these companies are very close in technological nuances, so AMD will be able to use two manufacturers. So, compared with 16-nanometer process technology TSMC, 7 nanometers is characterized by 35% more energy efficient and about the same high percentage of yield of crystals that have a positive impact on production costs. This, in turn, will allow AMD to earn more money and put good prices on the new CPU.

Most likely, we will also increase the number of cores to 12, 16 or even older models, as indicated, and the latest rumors. But besides all this new Ryzen will receive the increase due to the new architecture.

The fact that the current generation uses the architecture Zen, which Zen is different from the usual a little. Because of this, Ryzen second generation faster than the first by exactly the value of the frequency gain. But the next CPU will use the Zen 2 is a new architecture. More precisely, a more updated version of Zen, completely new, of course, can not be named. Now rumors claim that the rate of IPC (the number of executable for the tact teams) will increase relative to current models by 10-15%. Can’t tell what the growth is converted into real applications, but the figure is very significant.

What do we get in the end? But in the end we, if you believe all the leaks and logic, will get the new processors Ryzen, which will be faster once on all fronts: by increasing the number of cores, due to the increase of frequencies and due to architectural improvements. I don’t know what the end result is Intel’s 10-nanometer process technology, but AMD apparently get a bomb.

Let’s photoretinitis. Take a conditional Ryzen 7 3700X. He will get 12 cores (maybe even 16, but I think AMD will wait so Boston), frequency somewhere in the 4.0-4.6 GHz and the gain is purely because of the architecture. And cost of such a spool will be about the same 330-350 dollars. How do you like this processor? And some Ryzen 5 3600 with eight cores, a frequency of 3.7-4.5 GHz and a price of $ 200?

Honestly, as much as himself was curious how close or far I’ll be from reality in their assumptions. In General, the following year on the market the CPU should be hot.

Separately, I note that the architecture of Zen 2 first did not get Ryzen 3000. First, it will get EPYC server processors of the second generation. Yeah, they’ll jump from Zen 2 to Zen, bypassing the Zen+. The new EPYC belong to the family of Rome. The first samples of these CPU’s from AMD will be before the end of the year, and to represent their needs at the beginning of the next. It will be the first production seminomatous AMD and the first CPU in the world.

They related a very interesting story. As reported at the time senior Vice President of AMD forest Norrod, the data the CPU was designed with an eye on the competition with the 10-nanometer server processors Intel Ice Lake-SP. The only snag is that such processors simply can not compete with the new products from AMD, as they will not exist by that time! Early roadmap pointed to the announcement of the Ice Lake-SP in 2019, but now that Intel has recognized that with a 10-nanometer process technology are all bad, they are generally unclear when you’re out.

Roadmap Naples-Rome-Milan was formed on the basis of assumptions about the roadmap of Intel. We focused on the aggressive plans of Intel. CPU Rome and Milan were designed with the expectation that Intel will be able to do in the coming years. And then we learned that Intel is not able to do what we thought she would do.

Forest Norrod

Milan, if that is the EPYC processors of the third generation, which will use the architecture and Zen 3 will be released in 2020. That is Intel, most likely, in the server segment AMD is behind for a year or two! Was it possible to imagine a few years ago? Intel itself admits that now its main task — not to allow AMD to take 15-20% of the server CPU market. That is, Intel understands that AMD is quite capable of it. By the way, to release the CPU EPYC first generation AMD accounted for only 0.3% of the server processor market. 0,3%! Already this year, AMD expects to finish with a score of 5%. That will be the end of 2019, when AMD will seminomatous 64-core processors, we can only guess. If anything, AMD is almost out of the server market about 10 years ago, although in the same year 2006 amounted to 25% due to good CPU Opteron.

In General, if you thought the first Ryzen made a lot of noise, I think, next year you will have not less reason to be surprised. Perhaps next year I will upgrade my PC.

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